联合，又是联合 Coalition, the sequel

Britain
英国

Coalition, the sequel
联合，又是联合

James Astill
作者：James Astill

No political party will attain a majority
任何政党都无法获得多数议席

In May 2015 Britain will hold a general election in which nothing is predictable so much as the strain it will put on the already creaking Westminster system. First-past-the-post, majoritarian and adversarial, it emerged to produce stable governments from a two party contest. Yet the coming fight will be crowded, with five national parties expecting at least 5% of the vote and the Scottish National *** (snp) enjoying a post-referendum bloom. The result will be Britain’s third hung parliament since the war (the current one is the second). The government that emerges will probably be the same as the present one, a coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Yet even if that transpires—something most bookmakers do not expect— its formation will be attended by great uncertainty, testing the basic logic of electoral reward, and in turn increasing the disaffection most Britons feel with politics.
2015年5月英国将举行大选，结果无法预测，但它对本就摇摇欲坠的威斯敏斯特体系所带来的压力，已在意料之中。领先者当选、多数派、对抗性 …… 稳定的政府将从两党角逐中应运而生。不过，即将到来的争斗势必高手云集，五个得票率不低于5%的政党悉数登台亮相，苏格兰民族党（SNP）也会在全民投票中“分到一杯羹”。大选结果将催生出战后英国第三届悬浮议会（本次议会为第二届）。新议会很可能与当前的结构大体相当，是一个保守党和自由民主党组成的联盟。然而，尽管不算什么秘密（大多数庄家不希望如此），这种组合还是蕴藏着极大的不确定性，考验着选举激励的基本逻辑，也反过来加深了大多数英国人对政治的不满。

British politics is starting to feel rather north European
人们开始感到英国政坛与北欧如出一辙

Every general election in modern times has been won by the party most trusted with the economy or on the matter of leadership. Under David Cameron, the Tories are far ahead of the Labour *** on both counts. Yet mitigating these advantages are two consequences of Britain’s fracturing vote. First, the right is split. Under the chirpy leadership of Nigel Farage, the uk Independence *** secured 3% of the vote in 2010; this time, it will get around 10%, mainly at the expense of the Tories. Second, the left is more united, the Lib Dems’ decision to ally with the Tories having lost them around twothirds of their support, mostly to Labour.
在近代，每次大选的赢家都是在经济或领导力问题上最受信赖的一方。在戴维·卡梅伦（David Cameron）的率领下，保守党在上述两个方面都远远领先于工党。然而，这些优势的减弱会分散英国人的选票，导致两种后果。首先，右翼政党将分裂。借助奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）愉快张扬的领导风格，英国独立党在2010年得到3％的投票；这一次，他们有望收获10%，而保守党将成为主要受害者。其次，左翼政党更加团结，自由民主党决定与保守党结盟，使他们丧失了约三分之二的支持者，后者大多转投工党。

Given also the unfairness of Britain’s constituency boundaries, which means Labour needs fewer votes than the Tories to win seats, it has a great opportunity to bounce back to power after one term in opposition. Most bookies expect that—reasoning that Labour has only to turn out its core vote and retain most of its Lib Dem apostates to deliver Ed Miliband to 10 Downing Street. In a series of left-wing promises, he appears to have embraced this hypothesis as a “core strategy”.
同样要考虑的是英国选区分界的不公平性，这意味着跟上一届选举的情况正好相反，与保守党相比，工党需要更少的票数便可获得议席，赢得了一个反弹的大好时机。大多数博彩公司预计，工党只需把核心选票收入囊中，并确保拿到大部分自由民主党倒戈派的选票，就能把埃德·米利班德（Ed Miliband）送入唐宁街10号。在一系列左翼承诺中，他似乎已经把这一假想当做“核心战略”。

Yet this plan is fraying at the edges, so thoroughly is the Labour leader reviled, even by his own voters, less than half of whom trust him to run the economy. Given a choice between Mr Cameron, whom Britons like more than his party, and Mr Miliband, whom they like less, most will plump for the Tory incumbent. A surge by the snp, which could cost Labour up to half its 41 seats in Scotland, and by the Greens, which could reduce its ex- Lib Dem windfall, would make that electoral verdict still more emphatic.
然而，这项计划正在土崩瓦解，因为这位工党领袖被骂得狗血淋头，甚至在自己的选民面前也不受待见，其中只有不到一半的人相信他能玩转经济。如果要在卡梅伦（英国人更喜爱他所代表的政党）和米利班德（英国人不太中意他）做出选择，大多数人会支持现任保守党。苏格兰民族党的异军突起，可能将使工党在苏格兰的41个席位中损失过半；绿党的崛起则会收复前自由民主党的失地，使选举结果更加引人瞩目。

With its splintering vote and likelihood of coalitions, British politics is starting to feel rather north European. Yet its culture remains viperous and confrontational. The disdain Tory backbenchers show Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems, who have for the most part been a constructive partner, illustrates this. It is utterly self-defeating.
伴随着选票的分散和联盟的可能性，人们开始感到英国政坛与北欧如出一辙，虽然其文化仍不乏阴险和对抗的一面。傲慢不屑的保守党后座议员认为，尼克·克莱格（Nick Clegg）领导的自由民主党，虽然在大多时候扮演建设性的伙伴角色，实则来者不善。而这完全是在弄巧成拙。

Having no tribal affiliation, most voters view these feuds as ineffectual squabbling between politicians more similar, especially in their social and educational background, than they are different. The experience of coalition rule—to which most feel neutral or positive—has exacerbated that impression, and in turn fed the national disenchantment with politics. So have the lingering effects of the downturn, including cuts and glacial wage growth, and a new record level of distrust of newspapers on the back of the phone-hacking scandal. Both are rare boons for Mr Miliband, who has campaigned against the high “cost of living”. Yet the cost to British democracy is similarly high; voter turnout will decline further in 2015.
对于没有部落隶属关系的多数选民而言，这些政客之间的长期争斗纯属白费心机，因为他们都是一丘之貉，特别是在社会和教育背景上，相似点远远多于不同之处。联合执政的经历——大部分人并不反感，或持积极态度——更加深了这种印象，而且，反倒让民众对政治保持清醒。于是，经济持续低迷，包括包括裁员和加薪冻结，电话***丑闻甚嚣尘上，报纸上的不信任舆论达到新的创纪录水平。两者都成为世所罕见的天赐福音，让米利班德从中受益，发起了反对高“生活成本”的竞选运动。不过，英国的民主成本同样很高；2015年的选民投票率会进一步走低。

106页

Caveat victor
告诫胜利者

The next government will have other things to worry about. If the Tories return, Mr Cameron has promised an “in-out” referendum on Britain’s eu membership in 2017, and the Lib Dems would not block this. It would be a sapping drain on government time and, though Mr Cameron does not want it, might easily lead to Britain quitting the eu. The Tory prime minister has also pledged to deliver more powers to English voters, to address a longstanding constitutional anomaly occasioned by Scottish devolution. This is an overdue change, but only critics of the prime minister tend to care about it, which makes it, in political terms, a hiding to nothing.
下届政府将有其他事情需要操心。卡梅伦曾承诺，如果保守党重新执政，将在2017年就英国在欧盟的“去留”问题举行公投，自由民主党不会从中作梗。尽管卡梅伦不想有意为之，但它势必成为治国理政过程中的一次“釜底抽薪”，极有可能促使英国退出欧盟。保守党总理也承诺赋予英格兰选民更多权力，以解决长期存在的、因苏格兰地方治权下放而导致的宪法上的反常现象。这种变化难以实现，套用一句政治术语，就是毫无成功希望，但批评首相的人往往借此大做文章。

Whoever forms the government, it will have to embark on a savage new round of austerity. If the Tories win, this will mean additional cuts worth 37 billion ($60 billion) over the first three years of the next parliament. If Labour sneaks in, there will be lesser, but still painful, belt-tightening. A bigger difference is that Mr Miliband, much like his erstwhile hero President Francois Hollande of France, has not prepared his supporters for this tough reality. That makes this an election Labour will be secretly glad to lose. The same might be true for the Tories.
无论谁来组建政府，都必须启动新一轮残酷的紧缩政策。如果保守党获胜，这意味着在下届议会执政的前三年，要额外削减370亿英镑（约合600亿美元）。如果工党意外胜出，削减幅度可能小一些，但同样会痛苦不堪，勒紧裤带。米利班德的情况则有更大不同，与此前他所崇拜的法国总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德一样，他还没有要求其支持者做好准备，接受这种艰难的现实。工党将因此暗自窃喜，假如在选举中败北的话。保守党可能也会如此。

James Astill： political editor and Bagehot columist, The Economist
James Astill：《经济学人》政治编辑和白芝浩专栏作家

2015 IN BRIEF
2015年简讯

Britain stops all financial aid to India and South Africa by the end of the year.
英国在今年年底停止对印度和南非的全部财政援助。

Philately will get you anywhere on the 175th anniversary of the Penny Black, the world’s first adhesive postage stamp
2015年世界上第一张可粘贴邮票诞生175周年，集邮可把你带到任何地方。

Snatching victories from defeat
从失败中抢夺胜利

Jeremy Cliffe GLASGOW
作者：Jeremy Cliffe，格拉斯哥

Talk of Scottish secession will be hushed. The secessionists will not
苏格兰独立谈判将偃旗息鼓，但分裂主义者不会

In 2014 the Scots rejected independence. In 2015 separatists will dust themselves down and forge ahead regardless.
2014年苏格兰人拒绝独立。2015年分裂主义者将洗去尘土，但仍锐意向前。

Spring will bring three big events. In April a batch of new powers, including control of taxes on property transactions and waste disposal, will be devolved from London to Edinburgh in keeping with the Scotland Act of 2012. Around the same time the main Westminster-based unionist parties will go into the general-election campaign offering yet more devolution, including housing benefit and further control over income tax, fulfilling panicky promises they made to persuade Scots to vote No to independence. Scotland’s drift from the rest of the United Kingdom, then, will continue.
春节有三件大事。4月，根据2012年《苏格兰法案》的规定，一批新权力（包括财产交易税和垃圾处理的控制权）将从伦敦下放给爱丁堡。大约在同一时间，总部位于威斯敏斯特的几大工会主义政党将投入大选活动，争取更多权力下放，其中包括住房补贴、对所得税的更大控制权，并履行他们在说服苏格兰人对独立投反对票时所作出的匆忙承诺。届时，苏格兰将继续游离在英国其他地区之外。

Most important, the secessionist Scottish National *** (snp) will meet for its final conference before the general election in May. It will do so under its new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, the former deputy first minister to Alex Salmond (who resigned after the referendum). It will do so as Britain’s third-largest party in terms of membership, with roughly 100,000 members—up from 25,000 before September’s vote and equivalent to 2% of Scotland’s population.
最重要的是，分裂主义党派苏格兰民族党将在五月大选前举行最后会议。会议将由该党的新领导人妮可·斯图尔金（Nicola Sturgeon）主持，她曾在亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德（全民公决后辞职）手下担任第一副部长。作为英国第三大党，苏格兰民族党共有大约10万名成员，比今年九月公投前增加了2.5万人，相当于苏格兰人口的2％。

Scotland’s drift from the rest of the United Kindom will continue
苏格兰将继续游离在英国其他地区之外

The membership surge comes from left-wing voters who became committed to independence during the referendum campaign, then joined the snp afterwards to continue the struggle. They are radical and mostly young, and will thus unsettle the snp’s traditionally conservative members (known as “Tartan Tories”). That difference will bubble to the su***ce at the party’s spring conference. New members will use their muscle to yank the snp’s policies, particularly those on public spending, to the left. They will agitate for the party to promise a wealth tax.
会员激增源于左翼选民的加入，公投竞选期间，他们致力于苏格兰独立，并在加入民族党后继续斗争。他们是激进人士，大多是年轻人，因此，将使该党内部被称为“格子呢保守党”的传统保守成员感到不安。在苏格兰民族党的春季会议上，这种差异将浮上水面。新成员将动用力量，对该党政策暗中掣肘，特别是那些涉及公共开支的项目，使其偏向左倾，并鼓动征收财富税。

Wither Labour?
工党已是“昨日黄花”？

The snp will go into the general election with a starkly social-democratic prospectus. Combined with the ongoing collapse of the Labour *** in Scotland, this will enable it to win seats in working-class bastions like Glasgow and Dundee. Labour’s bout of soul-searching, triggered by the resignation of its leader in October 2014, will become yet more intense. Mr Salmond will lead the snp’s newly enlarged troupe of mps in Westminster, where he will secure as much power for Scotland as he can and will often outshine the main party leaders.
苏格兰民族党将带着直截了当的社会民主主张进入大选。随着工党在苏格兰的持续崩溃，这将使他们在拉斯哥和邓迪等工薪阶层主导的地区赢得席位。因2014年10月工党领袖辞职所引发的反省运动将变得更加激烈。在威斯敏斯特，萨尔蒙德先生将带领民族党新近扩大的国会议员团，确保为苏格兰争取尽可能多的权力，并经常在政党主要领导人中一枝独秀。

Two other parties will do well. The Scottish Greens, who also supported independence, will see their share of the vote rise (at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats). So will the Conservatives, who in the 2010 election won just one of Scotland’s 59 seats at Westminster. Thanks to the party’s talented Scottish leader, Ruth Davidson, together with the growing constituency for fiscal conservatism as further tax-raising powers are devolved, it will win another couple of seats in former Tory strongholds such as Perthshire.
其他两党也做得很好。同样支持独立的苏格兰绿党会看到自己的得票率不断上升（工党和自由民主党是受害者），苏格兰保守党也是如此，他们在2010年的选举中，只在威斯敏斯特赢得了苏格兰59个席位中的一席。多亏天才的苏格兰领导人露丝·戴维森（Ruth Davidson），连同增税权力进一步下放所带来的、支持财政保守主义的选民日渐增多，该党还将在佩思郡等前保守党堡垒赢得一些议席。

With a Scottish parliamentary election looming in 2016, the second half of the year will see tensions pull at the snp’s fabric. Some Tartan Tories will leave the party. Some of the new joiners will become disillusioned; they too will walk. The leftist Ms Sturgeon’s leadership style—cagey and reliant on a close circle of confidants—will rile. The growing possibility of Britain’s departure from the European Union will prompt some to call for the snp to push afresh for secession in the next parliamentary term.
随着2016年苏格兰议会选举的临近，今年下半年，苏格兰民族党内部的紧张局势剑拔弩张。有些格子呢保守党人士将脱离该党。一些新加入者的幻想破灭，也要拔腿走人。斯图尔金女士的左派领导风格——小心谨慎，依赖一小撮心腹——将引发众怒。英国离开欧盟的可能性不断增加，将促使一些人呼吁苏格兰民族党在下一议会任期内，推动展开新的自治谈判进程。

Ms Sturgeon will resist these calls while upholding her party’s long-term commitment to the cause. Scotland will head into 2016 with no immediate prospect of a new independence referendum. Yet the nationalists will be on the march—carrying the ideal of a separate Scotland with them.
斯图尔金女士将抵制这些呼声，同时，坚持履行该党对事业的长期承诺。苏格兰不会带着立即进行新一轮独立公投的前景迈入2016年。然而，背负着苏格兰独立的理想，民族主义者还在前行。

图示：Sturgeon marches on to the next batter
斯图尔金奔赴下一场战斗

Jeremy Cliffe: political correspondent, The Economist
Jeremy Cliffe: 《经济学人》政治通讯员

107页

Italian lessons
意大利教训

Beppe Severgnini MILAN
作者：Beppe Severgnini，米兰

A bit of friendly advice for 2015
为2015年提一条友好建议

For Britain, 2015 will be a 12-month-long session on the psychoanalyst’s couch. Coming from one referendum in Scotland and probably heading to another on Europe, by way of the May general election, the country will spend the year trying to work out what it wants. Italy may not seem the most obvious inspiration, but in three areas a consigliere can come in handy.
对英国而言，2015年将是坐在精神分析学家沙发上的12个月。关于苏格兰的一场公投，以及可能就欧洲问题举行的另一场公投，通过五月份的大选，让这个国家全年都要努力思考自己想要什么。意大利似乎并不是最能触动英国神经的要素，但它的参考意义在三个方面凸显出来。

First, ukip’s rise came as a shock to many in Britain. Populism and protest movements, mostly on the right, have had their moments in Italy, too. They didn’t last long. The Northern League didn’t get anywhere near the secession it was calling for. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement has already lost a quarter of the support it won in the 2013 general election. When they are put to the test (when they actually have to do stuff, such as running a city, instead of just whingeing), protest movements and populism tend to dampen voters’ enthusiasm. Nigel Farage’s trajectory may well take a downward turn in 2015—provided the three major parties stop obsessing about him and don’t hit the panic button.
首先在英国，许多人对独立党的崛起感到震惊。民粹主义和抗议运动，主要是右翼运动，在意大利曾一度风生水起，但并没有持续多久。北方联盟呼吁独立，最终无果。毕普·格里罗领导的五星运动把2013年大选成果的四分之一丧失殆尽。面临考验（当他们真正需要做些事情，比如管理一座城市，而不仅仅抱怨不休）时，抗议运动和民粹主义者的表现总是让选民的热情毁于一旦。2015年奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）的政治轨迹很可能向下——如果三大主要政党停止对他的迷恋、也不触动恐慌按钮的话。

Second, Britain is fretting about immigration, which will be a big issue in the election campaign. But keeping the door open has its advantages. Many Europeans from many different countries bring their contribution to Britain. Take Italians. There are about half a million of us in Britain, two-thirds in London, which is now Italy’s eighth-largest city. Most Italians work: in the City and in industry, in universities and restaurants. Italians don’t exploit the nhs. If they’re in hospital, they’re more likely to be wearing white coats than taking up beds.
其次，英国正在为移民忧心忡忡，这将是竞选面临的一个大问题。不过，开放门户不无优势，许多来自不同国家的欧洲人都可以为英国做贡献。就拿意大利来说吧。目前在英国大约有五十万意大利人，三分之二生活在伦敦，伦敦因此成为意大利第八大城市。大多数意大利人从事金融业和制造业，也在大学和餐馆里工作。意大利人不享受英国全民公费医疗保健，如果他们在医院，更可能是身穿白大褂，而不是占用床位。

And third, Europe. The next government should concentrate on proposing new rules that benefit everyone in the club, not just Britain. Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, in his own boisterous way, is doing just that. And his negotiating position, considering the state of Italy’s public finances, is weaker than David Cameron’s. In Europe, getting involved is better than standing aloof.
还有第三点，欧洲。下届政府应该集中精力，制定出有利于俱乐部每个人、而不仅仅让英国受益的新规则。热辣劲爆的意大利总理马泰奥·伦齐（Matteo Renzi）正在这样做。考虑到意大利的公共财政状况，他的谈判立场显然不及戴维·卡梅伦来的强硬。在欧洲，积极参与比袖手旁观更好。

Beppe Severgnini: columnist, Corriere della Sera
Beppe Severgnini：《米兰晚邮报》专栏作家

2015 IN BRIEF
2015年简讯

A fleet of driverless cars will start running on special lanes in Milton Keynes
一排无人驾驶汽车即将开始在米尔顿·凯恩斯（Milton Keynes）专用车道上行驶


Land Rover Defender, RIP
路虎卫士，安息吧

John Grimond
作者：John Grimond

End of the line for a lovable boneshaker
可爱的老爷汽车下线

Conceived on a beach in Wales in 1947, born in the West Midlands of England the following year, adopted later by Germans (bmw) and then Indians (Tata), the Land Rover Defender will die a much-mourned death in December 2015. Other Land Rovers—Discoveries and Range Rovers—will go on, but in the eyes of aficionados they are effete upstarts. And although a new Defender is promised, the diehards are sceptical. They never cared for the name, bestowed only in 1991, and consider their car to be the one true Land Rover. They fear it will die after less than three score years and ten.
1947年初创于威尔士海滩，次年问世于英格兰的西米德兰，后来先被德国人（宝马）收养，又被印度人（塔塔）买下，路虎卫士将于2015年12月沉痛谢世。路虎系列的其他车型——发现和揽胜——还将继续，但在发烧友的眼中，它们都是没落的暴发户。虽然制造商承诺，新款路虎卫士重生在即，但顽固派持怀疑态度。他们从来没有喜欢过这个诞生于1991年的名字，认为他们的车才是真正的路虎。他们害怕，它还没活到70岁就不在了。

Only production will end, not the vehicles themselves, and, far from disintegrating, most can be expected to live on for years. True, some are already losing detachable parts to thieves who foresee a dearth of spares, but the boast is made that most of the 2m or more Defenders ever made are still going. Their simple design, sturdy chassis and aluminium body make for longevity.
只有生产会结束，而不是汽车本身，而且，大部分车辆非但不会破裂解体，反而有望在路上继续奔驰好多年。诚然，一些车上的可拆卸部件已经被预见到备件匮乏的盗贼偷走了，但值得夸耀的是，在迄今出产的两百多万辆路虎卫士中，绝大多数汽车依然运转良好，简约的设计、坚固的底盘和铝制车身使它们长盛不衰。

The Land Rover was the idea of Maurice Wilks, the chief engineer of Rover after the war, who used an American Jeep on his farm in Anglesey and saw the need for a similar vehicle for other British farmers. His creation—noisy, draughty, underpowered, unresponsive and uncomfortable— went on to establish itself as a cherished and peculiarly British product. Unusually for a car, it has even found a place in the canon of English children’s literature (“Landy” and “Fender”), never mind Tomb Raider and James Bond films.
路虎越野汽车的设计构思源自莫里斯·威尔克斯（Maurice Wilks），作为路虎公司战后总工程师，他在安格尔西的自家农场驾驶美国产吉普车时，看到其他英国农民也想拥有类似汽车，于是萌生了灵感。他的发明虽然声音嘈杂、四处透风、动力不足、反应迟钝，毫无舒适可言，却经过不断改进，最终被打造为一种无比宝贵的英国特有产品，甚至在英国儿童文学中占有一席之地，更不用说在《古墓丽影》和詹姆斯·邦德电影中频频出镜亮相。对于一款汽车而言，真是太不寻常了！

In appearance it has changed little over the years, though it developed a slight bulge below the waistline in early middle age and was then elongated and adapted for countless different purposes. Some of its faults have been put right. Bigger engines, better transmissions, wind-up windows and other upgrades were introduced over the years, usually belatedly and in response to Japanese competition. But part of the Land Rover’s charm has always been its stubborn defiance of user-friendliness and customer comfort. It appeals to the sort of doughty people who revel in dust and cold, fuggedup windows, the jarring pain of every bump, and the need for the dexterity of a cardsharp combined with the strength of a poker-bender to engage the low ratio of the fourwheel- drive system.
岁月流逝，路虎汽车在外观上几乎没有什么变化，虽然在壮年时期腰部以下微微隆起，并在之后为适应无数不同目的，车身也进行了加长和改进，一些缺陷业已纠正。出于不得已或为了应对日本汽车的竞争，多年以来，引进了更大的引擎、更好的传输，手摇式车窗和其他多项升级。但是，路虎的魅力部分来自于对用户友好性和客户舒适度的顽固蔑视。它适用于那些勇敢刚强的人们，他们顶风冒雪，忍受着每一次颠簸所带来的疼痛，需要运用娴熟的操控和不屈的力量，与低功率四轮驱动系统并肩，在尘沙和寒冷中狂欢。

A cherished and peculiarly British product
无比宝贵的英国特有产品

That system, however, has been the other crucial part of the Land Rover’s success. It may be rubbish on the road, but off it has had few rivals. When confronted with a desert, a jungle or a perpendicular ascent, it just grinds on. And if it breaks down, its design is so basic that the fault isn’t usually too difficult to fix. The one obstacle that has proved insurmountable is modern legislation. Airbags, low emissions, all seats facing forward and pedestrians’ rights do not fit easily into the Land Rover ethos. They are blamed for delivering the coup de grace.
而这种系统一直是路虎成功的另一个重要组成部分。丢在道边，可能会被当做垃圾，但一上路，却过关斩将、鲜有对手。在沙漠、丛林或垂直上升的陡坡面前，它都能绝尘而去。一旦被拆解，它的设计又如此简洁基本，即使有毛病，往往也不难搞定。事实证明，难以逾越的障碍是现代法规。安全气囊、低排放、座椅全部向前和行人权益，都无法轻易与路虎精神兼容并蓄，而这种精神则因为可能对人造成致命一击而饱受指责。

图示：One lady owner
一位女车主

John Grimond: contributing editor, The Economist
John Grimond: 《经济学人》特约编辑

108页
Plane thinking
飞机思维

Emma Hogan
作者：Emma Hogan

A decision over airport capacity will at last be reached
有关机场容量的决定最终达成

Since 2012 Sir Howard Davies, a former consultant and financial regulator, has been pondering where to put extra airport capacity in Britain. After narrowing the options to Gatwick and Heathrow, Britain’s two busiest airports, Sir Howard and his Airports Commission will deliver their final recommendation to the newly elected government in 2015. They will plump for a third runway at Heathrow. In doing so they will put politicians from all parties in a pickle.
自2012年以来，前顾问和金融监管者霍华德·戴维斯爵士一直琢磨，把英国多出来的机场容量放在哪里？选项缩小到英国两大最繁忙的机场盖特威克和希思罗后，霍华德和他的机场委员会将于2015年将他们的最终建议提交给新当选的政府。他们将提议在希思罗机场建设第三条跑道。这样一来，就使各方政治人物都处于困境之中了。

The case for adding airport capacity in south-east England is a strong one. Heathrow, the world’s third-busiest airport by passenger numbers, is full, as is Gatwick at peak times. Sir Howard estimates that Gatwick will be full by 2020, with other southern airports following behind.
在英格兰东南部增加机场容量的呼声十分强烈。就客运量而言，希思罗机场是世界第三大繁忙的机场，在盖特威克机场的高峰时段，希思罗机场同样人满为患。霍华德预计，到2020年盖特威克机场将全面饱和，南方几座机场也将紧随其后。

In *** his recommendation, Sir Howard will place a bet on the future of travel. The argument for expanding Heathrow rests on the idea that hub airports are still important to the British economy, and that offering flights to far-flung places in emerging markets is vital to creating trade links. In contrast, Gatwick’s boosters point to the rise of lowcost airlines and how it has changed aspects of the industry. More people are “self-connecting” between flights, reducing the need for a large transfer hub, they argue. And the expansion of Gatwick could create genuine competition with Heathrow.
霍华德爵士的建议相当于为旅行的未来押下赌注。之所以提议扩大希思罗机场，是考虑到对英国经济来说，枢纽机场仍然非常关键；就构建贸易联系而言，往来于遥远新兴市场的航行也是至关重要的。与此相反，盖特威克机场的拥护者则将关注重点指向低成本航空公司的兴起，以及它对行业各个方面的改变。他们认为，越来越多的人可以在航班之间完成“自连接”，大型换乘枢纽的市场需求正在下降。而且，盖特威克机场的扩建有望为希思罗机场带来真正意义上的竞争。

It would be easier for politicians if Sir Howard and his team were to suggest Gatwick. Although some locals oppose it, far fewer will be affected than at Heathrow, where several rich west-London constituencies are threatening to put up a fight. Gatwick would also be far less likely to split opinion within parties. Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London who had his own vision of a new hub airport quashed by Sir Howard, has said another runway at Heathrow would be “barbarically contemptuous” of the city’s residents. Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, has previously opposed expansion there, though he seems to be wavering. And the Liberal Democrats dislike it intensely.
如果霍华德和他的团队提出扩建盖特威克机场，政治家的日子相对好过一些。尽管一些当地人持反对意见，对希思罗机场的影响却会大大减少，而一些富有的伦敦西区选民正威胁为希斯罗据理力争。扩建盖特威克机场也不太可能引发党内分裂。伦敦的保守派市长鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）对新枢纽机场有自己的设想，但被霍华德爵士推翻。他认为，在希斯罗机场新增加一条跑道，将是对伦敦市民的“野蛮蔑视”。工党领袖埃德·米利班德此前曾反对扩建，但眼下似乎摇摆不定。自由民主党则强烈反对。

But Sir Howard will be swayed by economics. Most airlines want to be at Heathrow, as shown by the price of the landing slots. Partly because of the airport, London is a financial powerhouse. Once Sir Howard delivers his verdict, the new government should start getting ready. Then discussions on where a fourth runway might go can start.
不过，对霍华德爵士来说，经济学是最终的决定因素。大多数航空公司希望扩建希思罗机场，这一点从降落时段的价格上可见一斑。部分原因在于机场坐落在伦敦，而伦敦是金融中心。一旦霍华德爵士的提议被提交，新政府就应该着手准备，届时，关于第四条跑道的讨论可能才会开始。

图示：London’s wake-up call
伦敦敲响了警钟

Emma Hogan: Britain correspondent, The Economist
Emma Hogan: 《经济学人》驻英国记者


Keeping the lights on
让灯亮着

Mark Johnson
作者：Mark Johnson

Britain will avoid blackouts, at a cost
为避免停电，英国不惜血本

Pray for warm weather in 2015. For years Ofgem, Britain’s energy regulator, has warned that Britain is running out of power. Towards the end of 2015 the margin between average peak electricity demand and available supply will fall as low as 2%—down from 14% in 2012, and less than half the 5% buffer that many eggheads think is an acceptable minimum. A shortage of spare capacity multiplies the risk that lights will go out during a cold snap or if a big power station breaks down. If nothing is done about it, the chance of blackouts could reach one in four.
为2015年的温暖天气祈祷吧！多年来，英国能源监管机构天然气电力市场办公室一直警告说，英国的能源消耗殆尽。到2015年年底，平均峰值电力需求和供应量之间的差额将跌至2％，比2014年下降了14％。很多理论家认为，5%缓冲量是一个可接受的最低水平，而当前的预测结果还不到这一数值的一半。在寒流来袭或大型电站出现故障时，闲置产能的短缺将导致断电的风险。如不解决的话，停电概率可达到四分之一。

The problem has been a long time coming. Copious supplies of cheap coal have encouraged Britain’s coalfired power stations to burn through most of the operating hours left to them under a European regulation that limits the life of the dirtiest kinds of plant. Many will soon shut down. Yet many costlier gas-fired power stations have been closed or mothballed—and uncertainty caused by a long-winded overhaul of Britain’s environmental subsidies has discouraged firms from reinvesting in them. Though renewables now provide nearly 20% of Britain’s electricity, these cannot yet make up the difference; planned new nuclear reactors at Hinkley Point in Somerset will not light up until at least 2022.
这个问题由来已久。由于煤炭供应廉价而充裕，英国的燃煤发电站在运营的大部分时间持续消耗能源，设备寿命低于欧洲法规限制，其中一些即将关闭。然而，因为此前许多造价高昂的燃气发电站已被关闭或封存，同时，历时长久的英国环保补贴计划迟迟没有定论，使得企业对再投资望而却步。虽然目前可再生能源已占到英国电力供应的20%，却依然无法补足差额；计划在萨默塞特郡欣克利角兴建的新核反应堆至少要到2022年才能点火开工。

Recently two things have made the situation worse. First, Britain’s economy is growing at its fastest rate for six years. That has pushed up consumption and hastened the crunch (as a general rule an increase in peak electricity demand of 0.5% accompanies each additional percentage point of economic growth). Second, Britain’s ageing power stations have started to look increasingly unreliable. In August a crack detected during routine maintenance disabled four of Britain’s 16 nuclear reactors. In July a fire toppled a tower at Ferrybridge c, a big power station in Yorkshire, hobbling it until the spring.
最近发生的两件事让局势雪上加霜。首先，英国经济正在以六年来最快的速度增长。这推高了消费，加剧了供求失衡的矛盾（作为一般规则，经济增长每增加1个百分点，峰值电力需求就会增加0.5％）。其次，英国的老化发电站看上去已越来越不可靠了。在今年八月的常规维护中，裂纹检测项目使英国16座核反应堆中的四座停摆。今年七月，一场火灾掀翻了约克郡费里布里奇C大型电站的一座高塔，后者带病运行，勉强撑到春季。

The National Grid, which manages the high-voltage power network on the government’s behalf, says two plans will help it fend off electricity shortages until new wind turbines and wood-burning generators start coming onstream in 2016. First, it will pay electricity firms to reopen mothballed gas stations, ready to fire up should chilly days require it. Second, it will vastly ramp up a programme that pays big factories to switch off when usage risks outstripping supply, probably between 4pm and 8pm on the coldest weekday evenings.
代表政府管理高压电网的英国电网表示，在2016年新的风力涡轮机和木材燃烧发电机开始投产前，两项方案可以帮助抵御电力短缺。一是，英国电网将向电力公司支付费用，让其重新打开封存的加油站，以备在寒冷的日子点火供暖。其次，英国电网将实施一项巨额补偿计划，在能源供不应求的时段（大约在最冷工作日的16:00-20:00之间），要求大工厂停止生产。

These prescriptions will probably keep all the lights on, but at a price. Consumers will have to contribute to the costs of both programmes, and regulators will learn to wield a meatier range of powers. Britain’s liberalised energy market appears to be powering down.
这些规定可能会让所有的灯都亮着，但代价不菲。消费者不得不为节省两个项目的成本做出牺牲，监管机构将学会如何运用更大的权力。英国的自由能源市场看似要断电了。

Mark Johnson: UK energy correspondent, The Economist
Mark Johnson: 《经济学人》驻英国能源记者

Just possibly…
只是可能...

Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence ***, becomes deputy prime minister.
英国独立党领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇出任副总理。

Conservative MPs in Scotland outnumber pandas once more.
苏格兰的保守派议员数量再一次超过大熊猫。

”Downton Abbey” bows out after a farewell sixth series.
《唐顿庄园》在第六集告别演出后落下帷幕。

2015 IN BRIEF
2015年简讯

Drunk tanks: some London Underground lines start running a 24-hour service at weekends
酒鬼禁闭室：一些伦敦地铁线路周末开始24小时运行服务


109页
Entente frugale
节俭同盟

As we approach the 600th anniversary in 2015 of the battle of Azincourt (which the English insist on calling “Agincourt”) and the 200th of Waterloo, not to mention the multi-commemorations of the two world wars, we are reminded that wars are the shared furniture of the French-British relationship. This helps explain why defence is the area in which France and Britain have established their most intimate ties. Even as Britain has drifted towards Europhobia and France has pressed for deeper integration within the euro zone, our countries have moved to ever-closer union in defence. The signing of the Lancaster House treaties in November 2010, with their military, defence-industrial and nuclear dimensions, was the crowning point of this process.
阿赞库尔（英国人坚持称之为“阿金库尔”）战役600周年、滑铁卢战役200周年（更不用说纪念两次世界大战的诸多活动）的临近提醒我们，战争是法英关系共有的附属品。这一点有助于对法国和英国将防卫领域设定为双方最紧密联系纽带的缘由作出解释。尽管英国患上了“欧盟恐惧症”、法国敦促在欧元区内部实现更深层次的整合，我们两国却已结成日益紧密的防卫同盟。2010年11月所签署的《兰开斯特宫条约》，涵盖了军事、国防、工业和核三方面内容，使这一合作达到高潮。

Until the end of the cold war, the British had no appetite for defence co-operation outside nato and the special relationship with America, while France emphasised national independence. The implosion of the Soviet empire, and the war in Bosnia (1992-96) in which France and Britain were prime movers, forced the recognition that military involvement in European conflicts was no longer going to be the default mode of American strategy. Having decided not to join the euro, a freshly elected Tony Blair found defence a way of putting Britain at the centre of Europe. This was done through a Franco-British summit in St Malo (December 1998), with the two countries taking the lead in what eventually became the European Union’s common security and defence policy (csdp).
直到冷战结束，英国都没有在北约和英美特殊关系之外缔结国防合作的胃口，而法国则强调民族独立。苏联帝国的崩溃和1992-96年的波斯尼亚战争（法国和英国是主要推动者）迫使人们意识到，对欧洲冲突的军事介入已不再是美国战略的默认模式。在决定不加入欧元区后，刚当选的托尼·布莱尔首相发现，防卫是英国深入欧洲中心的一种途径。在1998年12月于圣马洛举行的法英峰会上，这一想法落到实处，并由两国牵头，最终达成了欧盟共同安全与防务政策（以下简称CSDP）。

CSDP has been better at generating buzzwords (“headline goal”, “battle-groups”) than history-changing deployments. The prevention of genocide in Congo in 2003 and the ongoing anti-piracy patrols off the Horn of Africa have been its strongest contributions. Some of the blame for this modest record goes to the Iraq crisis, which split the eu and nato down the middle while *** British forces unavailable for csdp operations. Beyond that event, the stalling of the eu integration process and the general rise of Euro-scepticism in the wake of the recession have ensured that csdp remains a limited enterprise in which eu members will sink little political and strategic capital. By default, this semi-failure of csdp created an opportunity for Britain and France as the two most important European military powers to set up a permanent alliance of their own, based on shared aims and motives.
与改写历史的防卫部署相比，CSDP一直更善于制造流行语，比如“首要目标”、“战团”等。2003年在刚果制止种族灭绝和非洲之角正在进行的反海盗巡逻是CSDP的最卓越贡献。有人认为CSDP乏善可陈，部分应归咎于伊拉克危机，它不但将欧盟和北约的关系拦腰斩断，还使得英国军队无法参与CSDP行动。除了那次事件之外，经济衰退之后，欧盟一体化进程停滞不前和欧洲怀疑论甚嚣尘上也使CSDP的作用大大受限，欧盟成员国几乎没有投入政治和战略资本。当英国和法国准备以共同目标和动机为基础、建立自己的永久性联盟时，半失败的CSDP自然而然地为这两个最重要的欧洲军事强国创造了机会。

The continued ambition to deserve their seats as permanent members of the un Security Council is essential. In a world in which the United States has its own priorities, there is also more cause for London and Paris to work together. That a strong French-American security relationship has been built up, including in nuclear and intelligence affairs, has helped to reassure the British. Mutual benchmarking is also of great importance. This is particularly true in the nuclear arena, in which each country’s capabilities are to some extent a product of mutual emulation, on top of the need to deter unfriendly powers.
继续保住联合国安理会常任理事国地位的雄心是必不可少的。在这个世界里，美国有自己的优先事项，伦敦和巴黎也有更多理由共同合作。一个涵盖核事务和情报事务的、强大的法美安全关系已经建立起来，这有助于安抚英国。相互参照也是非常重要的，在核领域尤其如此，除了必须遏制不友好的权力之外，在一定程度上，每个国家的核实力都是相互借鉴的产物。

Herein lies a paradox. The nuclear part of the Lancaster House treaties contains a 50-year commitment to work together on nuclear-weapons stewardship, a highly sensitive area entailing exceptional levels of mutual trust. Yet this part is being implemented with no greater—and arguably with less—difficulty than the more mundane portions. This rests on a joint understanding that the vital interests of one country cannot be put at risk without also threatening those of the other. In other words, disagreements on contingent interests (such as the war in Iraq) can impede conventional military co-operation, but nuclear co-operation is based on shared vital interests. This is an alliance in the full sense of the word. It may be frugale but it is more than an entente.
这里存在着一个悖论。在《兰开斯特宫条约》中，有关核的内容包括核武器管理的50年协作承诺，这一高度敏感区域急需特殊级别的相互信任。然而，与那些更现实的部分相比，核内容的实施难度并不更高，有人认为，难度反而有所降低。这种想法的产生源于一种共识，即一个国家不可能在不威胁其他国家的前提下保全切身利益。换句话说，不确定利益（如伊拉克战争）上的分歧可能阻碍常规军事合作，但核合作是基于共同的切身利益。这是“节俭同盟”这个词的完整意思所在——它可能是节俭的，但其意义不止是同盟。

Another Waterloo?
另一场滑铁卢战役？

What could go wrong? Politically, a “Brexit” (British exit from the eu) in combination with a step-change towards full-blown eu federalism, including foreign and security policy, would make it impossible to sustain a bilateral alliance between a non-eu Britain and a province of a federalising eu. Economically, a sustained divergence between a rapidly growing Britain and a stagnating France could make it impossible to sustain the mutual-benchmarking component of an alliance between equals; but this could take a very long time indeed, since defence capabilities evolve in a multi- decade framework.
什么地方会出错呢？在政治上，英国退出欧盟，连同外交和安全政策逐步走向全面成熟的欧盟联邦制，使得非欧盟成员国的英国与联邦制欧盟下属的一个区域无法形成双边联盟。从经济上说，在快速增长的英国和停滞不前的法国之间长期存在分歧，对结盟所需的诸多要素不可能持同样看法；但这确实需要很长时间的磨合，因为防卫实力的演进要在几十年的框架内完成。

The most immediate challenge may come from a reopening of the nuclear debate in Britain after the 2015 election. In the absence of big increases in defence spending, Britain will have to cut non-nuclear capital expenditure sharply in order to pay for the renewal of the Trident submarine force. The bonds of a 50-year treaty designed to guarantee a mutual nuclear future will be put to the test.
2015年大选后英国将重新开放核辩论，这是英法同盟眼下最迫在眉睫的挑战。如果国防开支未能高额增长，英国将不得不大幅削减非核资本支出，以便有足够资金支持三叉戟潜艇部队的更新改造。这项旨在确保共同核未来的50年条约将面临考验。

Francois Heisbourg, special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique, asks what might upset the surprisingly close defence ties between Britain and France
战略研究基金会特别顾问弗朗索瓦·埃斯堡问，什么因素有可能对英法之间极其紧密的防务关系造成破坏？

Even as Britain has drifted towards Europhobia and France has pressed for deeper integration within the euro zone, our countries have moved to ever-closer union in defence
尽管英国患上了“欧盟恐惧症”、法国敦促在欧元区内部实现更深层次的整合，我们两国却已结成日益紧密的防卫同盟。